Do Registration Drives Really Bring Out Votes?
Sometimes in off year, or off month local races, the voter turnout is so small that a new candidate that is challenging an incumbent might think that he could win by registering a bunch of new voters, get them to vote, and win a major upset.
This is actually a very difficult way of getting extra supporters for you. Let me explain. If at best, only 30% of the registered voters vote in off year elections, you already have 70% of registered voters to work with and try to get extra votes out of this group. If you do a big registration drive to acquire new supporters, all you’re probably doing is registering a new group of apathetic non-voting citizens.
A better way to get extra votes you’ll need to win is to first identify 3 groups of registered voters. The first group is the high propensity voters who never miss an election (presidential, major primaries, & all local races). The second group is the good voters who may vote in all presidential and all primary races, but only occasionally vote or never vote in off year elections. The third group is the occasional voter. He votes in presidential races but very rarely in primary and never in off races.
Mail and walk to groups one and two, and ignore group three completely. Identify your supporters in both groups by phone, and when knocking on doors. On election day, have your “get out the vote” (GOTV) volunteers work on your supporters in group two only. Group one voters don’t need reminding to vote. They never miss an election.
Hopefully, you and your volunteers will work hard enough on election day to bring out those extra supporters in group two that you need to win the election.
Registration drives can work during major elections when over 50% of the votes will be cast. Especially when registering Democrats or Latinos. There’s been some big success in some Latino areas with well organized registration drives. But to make it successful you have also make sure these new registered voter’s turnout to vote on election day.
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